It could have been worse for Pep Guardiola and Man City – We stimulated their Champions League 24/25 draw
Collage of Pep Guardiola, City lifting the Champions League and City being drawn in the competition.
The Champions League league phase draw takes place on Thursday and Manchester City will learn which eight teams they will face in the opening stage of the competition.
The Champions League will have a new look in the 2024/25 season, with the traditional group stage scrapped in favour of a revamped league table.
All 36 teams – up from 32 – will be thrown into the same league table but, rather than playing every other team home and away, each club will face eight different opponents just once.
The 36 teams are split into four pots of nine and each club will face two teams from every pot, including the one they are in, meaning we could see some massive fixtures early in the competition.
Though Europe’s biggest sides could face off, there is little jeopardy of them being eliminated. Only the bottom eight teams in the league will be knocked out of the competition completely before the knockout stage.
The top eight advance straight to the last 16 – where the tournament proceeds as normal – but teams placed 9th-24th will then compete in play-off ties to join them there.
Manchester City will be among the favourites to finish at the top of the table but, if anything close to our simulated fixture list comes true, then they will have a difficult time doing so.
Pep Guardiola, head coach of Manchester City FC, celebrates with the trophy during the award ceremony following the UEFA Champions League final foo…
Photo by Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images
Man City Champions League draw simulated
Other than their fellow English sides – Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa – City can be drawn against any of the teams in the draw, which could lead to a brutal run of fixtures.
Thanks to the Champions League draw simulator from Inker, we simulated the Blues’ draw to see how their league phase campaign could look.
PSG vs Man City
Team of PSG celebrates goal during the Ligue 1 match between Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier HSC at Parc des Princes on August 23, 2024 in Pari…
Photo by Tnani Badreddine/DeFodi Images via Getty Images
Starting things off hot, City’s first fixture in our simulation is a juicy-looking away tie to Paris Saint-Germain.
The changes to the competition, especially the additional fixtures to eliminate fewer teams, have drawn criticism but those in favour of the changes would point to this fixture as to why the new format is a good thing.
PSG might be without Kylian Mbappe but they still have plenty of pacy forwards and a new-found midfield grit which could trouble City.
Man City vs Juventus
Dusan Vlahovic of Juventus F.C. celebrates after scoring the goal of 0-3 during the 2nd day of the Serie A Championship between Hellas Verona F.C. …
Photo by Domenico Cippitelli/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Things don’t get much easier in the second game, either, with the simulation giving City an absolutely rotten draw with Juventus.
Juve are one of the best teams in Pot 2, one City will be hopeful of avoiding in real life, but at least having the game at home is an advantage.
The Old Lady have started the season strongly with two 3-0 wins.
Sporting vs Man City
Viktor Gyokeres of Sporting CP celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal during the Liga Portugal Betclic match between Sporting CP and Rio Av…
Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images
Next up for City is an away fixture against perhaps the strongest side in Pot 3, the champions of Portugal, Sporting.
The Lisbon giants have won all three games to start the new season, though, they were not in Europe’s top competition last year.
The two sides met in the last 16 in 2022, with City winning 5-0 on aggregate after a goalless first leg.
Man City vs Stuttgart
Head coach Sebastian Hoeness of VfB Stuttgart celebrates after the 5-0 victory of the DFB-Pokal match between SC Preußen Münster and VfB Stuttgart …
Photo by Christof Koepsel/Getty Images
After drawing the strongest team in Pot 3, City have also been stuck with perhaps the most dangerous side in Pot 4, other than the ineligible Aston Villa.
Though Bayer Leverkusen rightly stole all the headlines in Germany last season, Stuttgart were another revelation as they too finished above Bayern Munich and came second.
They held Leverkusen to a 2-2 draw in the Super Cup final earlier this month before losing on penalties but did lose their opening game in the league.
This is their first appearance in the Champions League since 2010.
Man City vs Bayern Munich
Jamal Musiala of FC Bayern München (C) celebrates with teammates after scoring his teams first goal during the Bundesliga match between VfL Wolfsbu…
Photo by Sebastian El-Saqqa – firo sportphoto/Getty Images
If one of the teams that finished above Bayern Munich wasn’t bad enough, then actually playing Bayern Munich certainly is.
In this hellish simulation, City have somehow managed to draw two of the toughest teams in Pot 1.
Though they have avoided Real Madrid and Inter, they probably would have preferred fellow Germans Borussia Dortmund or RB Leipzig to Bayern.
City overcame the Bavarians in a thrilling quarter-final tie on their way to lifting the trophy in 2023.
Bologna vs Man City
Remo Freuler of Bologna FC during the serie Serie A Enilive match between SSC Napoli and Bologna FC at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on August 25, …
Photo by Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images
As well as Sporting, City have also drawn one of the other top teams in Pot 4 in Bologna.
The Italian side shocked Serie A last season by qualifying for the Champions League but have predictably seen their best players and manager stolen away this summer and are yet to win so far this season.
It’s their first-ever appearance in the competition.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Man City
Maryan Shved (L) of Shakhtar Donetsk during the friendly match between Ipswich Town and Shakhtar Donetsk at Sportzentrum Landskron on July 20, 2024…
Photo by Timothy Rogers/Getty Images
City have gotten their first bit of real luck by drawing Shakhtar Donetsk as their second opponent from Pot 2.
Though the Ukrainians are far from walkovers, they are clearly preferential to Atletico Madrid, Leverkusen, Atalanta, Benfica or AC Milan.
Man City vs Lille
Lille’s players including Lille’s Belgian defender #12 Thomas Meunier celebrate after winning the UEFA Champions League qualification 2nd-leg play-…
Photo by MICHAL CIZEK/AFP via Getty Images
City will wind up a gruelling league phase at home to Lille, the final team from Pot 3.
Though the Blues have avoided Dutch giants PSV and Feyenoord, Lille could still prove to be tricky opposition, especially if they still have something to play for.
Man City Champions League simulated draw in full
Though City have avoided four of their toughest rivals in Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Inter and Barcelona in the simulation, they have still been handed a remarkably tough list of fixtures.
There isn’t a team you wouldn’t fancy City to beat on their day, but the relentlessness of the fixture calendar alongside domestic competition and the number of tough teams they have drawn could certainly grind the squad down.
Guardiola will be keeping his fingers crossed it isn’t so tough when the draw is officially made on Thursday evening.
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