Battle at Etihad: Brothers at war as EPL title race hots up
Battle at Etihad: Brothers at war as EPL title race hots up
AvatarBy The Nation on March 30, 2024
The end of the Klopp-Guardiola rivalry signals the beginning of a new one, and although a master-and-apprentice dynamic means no clash of tactical philosophies, Mikel Arteta versus Pep Guardiola could grow into something just as interesting. There is already history between Arsenal and Manchester City; already a clear tactical journey of move, counter-move, and counter-counter-move through their last few meetings. It isn’t widely reported on, but that’s because this fixture has only just been brought into the light.
It’s worth briefly going through their Premier League games since Arsenal first started to look like a proper Arteta team (or, to put it another way, a proper Guardiola team) towards the end of the 2021/22 season.
Following a 5-0 win for Man City, Guardiola was lulled into thinking it would be easy and, leaving Rodri alone at the base, was shocked by a very aggressive man-to-man press through midfield. Arsenal overwhelmed Man City, only to collapse in the second half and lose 2-1.
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In 2022/23, Guardiola, a little stunned, over-corrected with a wonky 3-2-2-3 in which Bernardo Silva was left flailing in a left-back/centre-mid role. Bukayo Saka dominated Silva’s spaces and Arsenal should have won… only to, again, collapse under the pressure and lose 3-1.
For the second meeting that year, Guardiola finally cracked the code, this time negating the man-to-man Arsenal press with a wide 4-2-4 that used the full-backs as outlets and Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland dove-tailing as direct forwards getting on the end of longer passes. The Arsenal press was broken and City were comfortable 4-1 winners.
Earlier this year, a 1-0 win for Arsenal was again the result of adapting to what had come before. The man-to-man press now solved, Arteta opted for a far more cautious approach and Arsenal won a constipated game at the Emirates.
The history is laid out here mainly to say: we don’t know what will come next. It is Guardiola’s turn to shake things up; to counter-punch Arsenal’s caution.
The most likely option is finding a way to connect De Bruyne and the in-form Phil Foden in the centre-left space, where Arsenal – still cautious, packing the midfield with bodies – are slightly vulnerable because of Saka’s defensive deficiencies.
But Guardiola could do something completely unexpected. He knows Arteta knows him inside out, and that means trialling something new to coax Arsenal out of their more conservative shape.
We can expect to see Mateo Kovacic in a reined-in position alongside Rodri – even though that will only clog things up further – because John Stones’ injury means there is nobody to step up.
That could, in turn, force Guardiola into utilising traditional wide full-backs again, in the hope of de-cluttering midfield while pinning Gabriel Martinelli and Saka. Truthfully, there is no use trying to guess what Guardiola will have come up with. Whatever it is, it will be interesting – and match-defining.
That’s not to say Arsenal will simply sit back. They will still want to gain a foothold in the game and hold as much possession and territory as possible, just without pouring bodies forward to leave the gaps for De Bruyne and Haaland to burst into.
Their best hope is that Rodri, previously overwhelmed in the second match of 2022/23, is overworked by the sheer number of Arsenal midfielders working in the pockets of space around him.
Chief among those is Kai Havertz, who has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances and is excelling as a false nine, dropping deeper to receive possession and help swarm the opponent.
Arsenal’s eight consecutive wins in the competition have been based on total control, through Declan Rice and Jorginho, mixed with Havertz’s capacity to link with Martin Odegaard and release the two wide players ahead of him.
Chances will be few and far between at the Etihad, but keep an eye on how Havertz moves around Rodri. There is always the chance that Kovacic will go missing and provide scant resistance.
Their unfamiliarity together is a potential weak point that hands a small advantage to Havertz, as well as to Gabriel Martinelli, who will look to get in behind a team lacking Walker’s recovery speed.
It’s enough to give Arsenal a very slight edge, but with Man City unbeaten in 38 Premier League games at the Etihad, a newly-cautious Arteta would gladly take a draw. Kovacic and Rodri, Rice and Jorginho, and forwards instructed not to abandon their post: it points to a nervous contest with few clear-cut chances.
Man City vs. Arsenal: Head-to-head record, past meetings
The latest Pep Guardiola-Mikel Arteta Etihad reunion will be a particularly momentous one on Easter Sunday, as Premier League champions Manchester City host current table-toppers Arsenal with priceless points on the line.
The Gunners return to domestic duty one point and two places better off than the treble winners, with Liverpool sandwiched in between their fellow title rivals and capable of surging to the summit of the table when they take on Brighton & Hove Albion in the day’s 2pm kickoff.
Two-and-a-half hours later, Arsenal can return to their perch with a ninth successive Premier League victory, although they must find a way to best a Citizens unit who have not been downed on Etihad soil in a staggering 16 months.
From a neutral perspective, the head-to-head record between Man City and Arsenal is an aesthetically pleasing one, with a multiple of five in each metric since Woolwich Arsenal and Ardwick first crossed paths in 1893.
That inaugural battle marked the first of 210 showdowns between the Citizens and the Gunners, who lead the way with a century of wins against the current English and European champions, hitting that three-figure mark in October’s Emirates encounter thanks to a deflected Gabriel Martinelli strike.
Victory number 99 had come Arsenal’s way just a few months beforehand in the 2023 Community Shield as they held their nerve from the penalty spot, thereby ending an eight-game losing streak against Guardiola’s men since another smash-and-grab Wembley success behind closed doors in the 2019-20 FA Cup semi-finals.
City’s excellent eight-game winning sequence took them up to 65 triumphs over Arsenal in their history, and seven of those have arrived in their last seven Premier League home matches, where they have subjected despondent Gooners to humiliation after humiliation.
Across their last two top-flight showdowns at the Etihad, Man City have made the net bulge nine times while conceding just once themselves – to perhaps the unlikeliest scorer in Rob Holding – and it has been nine years since Arsenal emerged victorious on the Sky Blues’ soil.
On that occasion, the silky Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud propelled Arsene Wenger’s charges to a two-goal victory, and by emulating the class of 2014-15, Arsenal would achieve their first league double over the reigning champions since the 2007-08 campaign.
While August’s Community Shield showdown did end in a share of the spoils after 90 minutes, there has not been a Premier League stalemate between the two clubs since Guardiola’s debut campaign in April 2017, where four goals – the last of which was scored by the ever-criticised Shkodran Mustafi – were split evenly at the Emirates.
Almost exactly six years down the line, another goal-fest is certainly not out of the question between two of the finest teams in the land, albeit two teams that also enter the Easter weekend anxiously awaiting news on injuries to several star performers.
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